Wow! Here we are in September 2020!
March to May was the the longest 3 years of my life and yet June-August is a blur...and the real estate market has been blowing up! The "low supply-high demand" trend is continuing to be totally unprecedented and really is the similar in much of the lower 48. Everyone's crystal ball of the future is cracked or murky!
It's a great time to sell a home with multiple offers common and sales prices increasing. It is a also a good time to buy with the historically low interest rates/affordability and lots of folks NEED a new home as we experience the new normal of working from and spending more time at home. When will this change is the question on everyone's mind? I think it will take a lot to change the dynamic between supply & demand. And with new construction a big part of the market and the rapidly rising material costs, sales prices will not go down any time soon in my opinion. Interesting days we are in for sure!
I wanted to check the numbers in other area's so take a look on what's happening in the market September 2020 vs. September 2019 in Anchorage Residential & Condominiums, Anchorage multi family ,Mat-Su Valley multi family , Eagle River residential and entire Mat-Su valley residential.
First we have the number of Active Listings (Supply) and the numbers are down across the board, especially in Anchorage residential (-35%), Mat-Su residential (-45%), and Eagle River residential (-33%). Anchorage Condominiums (-20%) is a bit of a surprise (I thought there would be higher inventory there).
The rubber meets the road in regards to Pending Sales (Demand). Anchorage residential, condominiums and Mat-Su residential pending sales are all up over 30% from last year. Coupled with the boom in refinances you can understand why the lender's, title companies, appraisers, contractors etc are so backed up. This leads to lots of stress for the buyer's, seller's and Realtor's.
I'll be watching this closely as we move into Winter and 2021.
You can really see the difference and state of the market when you look at the Pending to Active ratio as this chart illustrates (2020 in blue).
Actual sold units is pretty much the same compared to last year but the gap will start to widen as the high number of pending sales close.
The gap will widen as well regarding average sales prices too I believe. Much of that will be driven by the rapidly rising prices for construction materials and we are still experiencing over asking price offer's. The question here is what will appraiser's do regarding price.
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